Motion for Brunel branch on ‘hard’ or ‘no-deal’ Brexit

This UCU branch notes that no major country has ever left the European Union or similar trading bloc. A recent report by the independent (King’s College London based) research group, The UK in a Changing Europe, stated that “no deal will not get Brexit done” and instead would be the start of a “period of prolonged uncertainty for citizens, workers and businesses”. Unfortunately, in terms of securing a proper UK/EU trade deal (to replace the current trading arrangements), the UK is running out of time. At present, during the current so-called transition period, we are trading with the EU on the same level ‘single market customs union’ basis that we did when we were still in the EU. That privileged position will come to an abrupt end at the end of this year (when the transition period expires), unless a mutually beneficial new trading relationship is negotiated. At present, a ‘no deal’ exit looks increasingly likely. Such an exit is expected to cause
• GDP 5% to 10% lower over the course of the next 10-15 years than it would have been, had the UK stayed in the EU. Treasury data also states that the limited free trade deal planned with the EU would strip 6.7% from the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) over a similar time scale – meaning £130bn of lost growth.
• The UK finding itself trading with the EU on purely World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms, with import tariffs on goods ranging from 3–25% and additional non-tariff barriers adding a further 14%.
• A possible increase in net public borrowing of between £96bn and £141bn by 2035/2036, according to the Government’s long-term analysis. Government borrowing has already risen by an extra £200bn since March to deal with Covid-19.
• Foreign Direct Investment to fall by around 24% and overall business investment by 3.5% over the long term.
• The UK’s trade with its biggest partner, the EU – which accounts for 49% of UK trade with a further 10% from countries with an existing Free Trade Agreement with the EU – damaged.
• As well as the high ‘no deal’ trade tariff costs, the Government’s modelled ‘no deal’ scenario also includes non-tariff-related costs (in UK/EU trade) of 10% for goods and 11% for services. Non-tariff barriers (NTBs) include customs checks, regulatory barriers, rules of origin, administration costs, etc.
• Significant delays at UK borders, with supply shortages in key sectors for both businesses and households.
• Further negative effects on our environment, health, security, workers’ rights, consumer protection and the integrity of the UK.

This UCU branch notes the likely, multiple negative consequences of these economic and other effects of a ‘hard’ or ‘no-deal’ Brexit on higher education and those working within the sector.

This UCU branch further notes with regret that the national UCU, consumed as it is by issues arising from the COVD-19 pandemic, has had little to say about this impending disaster.

This UCU branch therefore calls on the national UCU to use its profile and resources to apply pressure on the government to reach comprehensive deals with the EU on trade and other issues in order to avoid the multiple negative consequences outlined above.